Rating Predictor

Estimate your improvement trajectory based on 500 000+ FIDE players.

How many years since your first FIDE rating.

Plateau probability *

* A player is considered to have plateaued when their rating stays within ±15 elo for 3 consecutive years. Only the first such window is recorded — a later breakout would not cancel it.

Ceiling analysis
15-year rating trajectory
Predicted 80% range Current rating First ceiling Breakout zone

Shaded band shows 80% prediction interval. Based on . Trajectory uses mean cumulative gain.

Fast improver likelihood

* Defined as top 15%% of cumulative gain by year 3 within the rating group. Estimate combines group base rate, age, title, and plateau-survival signal. It is a prior probability, not a guarantee.